The death of Svetlana Aronov

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   Svetlana Aronov went walking her dog in Manhattan, was reported missing, and she and her dog were later recovered dead from the East River.  The Franklin Delano Roosevelt, FDR, Drive runs along the East River.  Along a section of it one can cross over the drive on pedestrian bridges and then enter a narrow walkway, 10-30 feet, that runs directly alongside the seawall of the East River.  Svetlana Aranov most likely entered at71st St. and then turned south.  This is the location of the Hospital for Special Surgery, they specialize in joint and athletic surgeries.  After walking some blocks south she would cross over another pedestrian bridge and return to York Avenue.  This was apparently her usual dog walking route.  Her dog was fairly small.

   Just south of the 71st St entrance and at various points along the seawall are cleats.  Cleats are metal devices with horns at either end,  this allows for ropes to be wrapped around the cleat with the horns holding the rope in place.  The cleats are used to tie for docking boats and, more usually for the East River, barges.  The photograph shows the cleat just south of 71st St.  What is noticeable is the amount of the railing that has been removed to have access to the cleat.
   The opening on the side of the cleat is about 8 inches wide by 16 inches high (20 cm x 45 cm).  Obviously that is enough for a small dog to fit through.  But the dog would have to have a reason why.

   Sparrows frequent the walkway.  On one occasion, I
saw a sparrow perch on the seawall.  When it flew, it dropped down and flew about 2 feet off the face of the seawall and about 6 feet above the water surface.  It would repeatedly perch, fly along the wall and perch again.  I only saw a sparrow doing this once.
   The reason a sparrow would do this is to avoid hawks.  When pigeons fly form Roosevelt Island, the short distance to the Manhattan shore, they fly 6 feet above the water.  That way, if a hawk tries to make a diving attack the hawk will kill itself in striking the water, being unable to stop or turn in the short distance.  That would force the hawk to attack form the same level and give the pigeon the chance to escape in a turning and burning maneuver.  The closeness to the water, and seawall, protects against hawk attacks.  Hawks certainly attack pigeons, I once saw a pigeon crash to the ground on Broadway on the upper east side of Manhattan.  After striking the ground, it flipped and flailed against the pavement.  Its movements were futile because its head had been ripped off.  I do not think that a collision with a building could do that.
   But let us now consider a small dog.

 
    The pigeon flies about 6 feet off the water.  The tide range in New York harbor is about 6 feet.  At high tide, the water surface is about 4 feet below the top of the seawall.  When she disappeared the tide was about
 1-1.5 ft above low water.  That means a sparrow would fly about 2.5 below the top of the seawall.  If the dog stands by poking its head through the cleat opening, the sparrow would fly almost in front of the dog's face.  All the dog has to do is jump impulsively at eh bird, a,b, above.
   The dog sees the sparrow on the seawall and then the sparrow flies towards where the dog is walking.  Curious, the dog pokes its head through the opening.  The dog sees the bird fly past and jumps, then strangles on its leash.
   She does not know what has happened, walking somewhat ahead of the dog, but feels the tug on the leash handle and the dog struggling.  She climbs the railing to lift the dog but the concrete around the cleat is badly eroded and she steps on a broken section, loses her balance and falls into the water.  Her legs had bruises below the knee consistent with her shins hitting a horizontal bar of the railing in climbing over.  Water forced up nostrils can cause a loss of consciousness.  She loses awareness and drowns.  The leash and dog fall into the water and also drown, the leash potentially weighing down the dog.  The dog was found still wearing the leash.
   The entire action could have taken less than 15 seconds.  She fells the tug on the leash, not unexpected when walking a dog, but the tug is unusual.  This could take 1 sec.  She stops and moves her left foot, which is to the east, back, 0.5 sec.  She finishes turning her upper body, 0.3 sec.  She focuses her eyes, 0.2 sec.  She realizes the leash is trailing through the opening, 0.4 sec.  She is 10-15 ft ahead of the opening and hurries back, 3 sec.  She looks over railing, focuses eyes, 0.2 sec, reacts, 0.2 sec.,  does not think she can pull dog through opening, decides to climb railing.  Places arm over railing and weight on top, 1 sec places right leg over railing, 0.5 sec, places left leg, 0.5 sec, drops right foot to concrete, 0.;3 sec, drops left foot, 0.3 sec, squats down, 0.5 sec grabs leash 0.3 sec stands lifting dog 0.5 sec, shifts foot 0.3 sec, falls.  Those numbers add up to 10 seconds.  She might have spent a few seconds thinking or trying to pull the dog up through the opening.

  The photograph to left shows the concrete at the first cleat south of the 69th street pedestrian bridge but the concrete around all the cleats is severely eroded.
   The reason why the cleat directly south of 69th St is likely is that the Hospital for Special Surgeries is built overspanning the FDR and the walkway.  There are large heavy columns alongside the walkway to support the building which obscure the view of drivers of the walkway, along other areas the walkway is in full view of the traffic.  The fact that nobody saw anything makes this the most likely location for the accident, this or another cleat under the hospital.

   In summer, particularly on weekends, the walkway can be a little crowded.  But this was winter on a weekday, the movement of people is intermittent, there can be gaps of 15 minutes between people.
   The concrete around the cleat was eroded by steel hawsers used to anchor barges over the years, the steel is harder than, and erodes the concrete.
   I cannot say that I can prove that this is what happened but it fits all the known facts.  And there is the old Sherlock Holmes adage, " when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever is left, no matter how improbable, must be the answer".  Well, maybe not every possibility has been eliminated but there had to be some reason for her to have climbed the railing.
   This might be the only instance of the history of New York in which a sparrow caused someone's death.